Big changes in energy

    The International Energy Agency (IEA, based in London) released a report today that projects that the United States will become the world's largest energy producer by the year 2020.  By that year it is expected to be a net exporter of natural gas.  By 2035 it is expected to be "almost self-sufficient" in energy.
    The common belief in the 1970's that the world was running out of oil now appears to have been a bit premature.  One wonders in hindsight (which is always 20-20) how we could get so worked up over something that was so far off base.  And what else are we far off on today, one wonders?  Now we can say, well, we have to run out of oil soon at this rate, don't we?  Apparently we have a few more years left.
    This development has profound implications for the balances of international economics and power.  While the Middle East will continue to be important for oil--and indeed Saudi Arabia is projected to re-take the lead from the US in the 2020's--the US, and North America in general, will be in a strong position.  North America is expected to become a net oil exporter.  Most international flows of oil are expected to go to Asia, with China being the largest recipient.
    This also points out the benefits of our entrepreneurial system, which has been able to lead the way, through innovation and risk-taking, to re-inventing the entire energy sector.  Despite obstacles erected by government agencies the efforts of private companies and entrepreneurs have resulted in solutions that were, to say the least, unexpected.
    It also means that while the future may still (eventually) be in renewable energy, that future appears to be much further off than we thought.  Most reports indicate that we have enough natural gas to last 100 years.  It is also probably very premature for our Federal government to invest in such things as solar and wind energy, because these technologies would seem to have a much longer runway to self-sufficiency than is currently practical.  (There are markets for such things, but a lot of it has been subsidized.)
    But this new vision of the future does merit a grain of salt and a word of caution, for, as with the estimates so poorly performed in the 1970's, these projections are not guaranteed to come true.  Nevertheless, some of these trends have already been gathering steam for a few years and will probably continue for at least a few more years.
     The report also says that gains in energy efficiency are expected to be another important factor in the use of energy in the coming years.