Tuesday, December 11, 2012

China-watching, US-watching

     Economists tend to have some doubt about what is really happening with the Chinese economy; they are not sure if the numbers put out by official Chinese sources are totally legit.  China has been going through a growth slowdown for the past couple of years.  Coupled with the threat of recession in Europe, the Chinese slowdown has led to economic estimates that tend to emphasize the threat of recession in the US.
     However, the latest reading gleaned by some prognosticators has Chinese growth picking up speed again.  This could be good news for trade in the Pacific area, in which the US participates via its "left" coast.
     Some people are under the impression that if China is doing well, it must be bad for the US and that we should hope that they go into a slump.  This is not true unless the terms of trade are so bad for us that we lose money whenever we trade with them.  It is pretty certain that this is not the case.
     We on the other coast sometimes tend to overlook the economic strength of the Pacific rim.  We in the East may be suffering a little more from the crisis in the Euro area than is the rest of the country.  We are on that great Atlantic trading highway that is not in the greatest of health at the moment.
     Nevertheless, trade is truly international these days.  Not all the ships that come from Asia dock in Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, Vancouver, etc.  Some of them go through the Panama Canal and all the way up to New York.
     But in some ways, the strength or weakness of our trading partners are not our primary worry, since so many of our problems are of our own making.  We are still the most powerful economy in the world, and if we could fix ourselves the rest of the world would follow behind us (for the most part).