Monday, September 20, 2010

Cover-of-Time Theory

Time Magazine's 9/6/2010 cover proclaimed "Rethinking Homeownership." Inside, the cover story speculated that homeownership may no longer makes economic sense.

Funny thing about the cover of Time. Many times over the years, trends that have appeared on the cover were just about played out and were on the verge of reversing.

They didn't miss the top of the housing bubble by very much in 2005 when they extolled the virtues of owning a home, wondering on their cover if your home would make you rich.

Many years earlier, when interest rates were the highest they've been in the memory of several generations, Time's cover featured those sky-high rates. Not long after that, interest rates were on the way down.

Maybe the editors are just very slow at recognizing a trend. Or maybe they don't put these things on their cover until the trend is on everyone's mind.

If it is the latter, it fits in with the contrarian view that when everyone is stampeding in a certain direction, the best thing to do is to head the other way. If the cover-of-Time theory is correct (i.e., the cover of Time is a contrarian indicator), your home may be about to make a comeback as a valid investment.

Let's hope that is the case.

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